What is with the weather?

We know our chances are not high

28 Sept - ABC relaxing

Yes, another lazy day although a few people went for reasonable day trips from ABC. The chicken for dinner was awesome! And thanks, scabby lip Ursula, for the bottle of port that animated dinner. A memorable evening.

28 Sept - Mark to C1

Mark, who stayed at Depot Camp last night, slogged up in the deep snow with the Russians and following the British (who were on skis) to C1. He had a tough time of it, the wind was so bad he could only make our tents, not his own, only 150m more. Once in a tent he didn't want to leave, even for the 30th - said the wind was so bad he couldn't leave!

29 Sept - ABC relaxing

Well, so much for our plan to go to Depot Camp, the weather was terrible. Almost unsaid, we bailed in unison. The reward was another fantastic dinner - thanks, Serke! His cooking was always good but after the last bakery training he has excelled with everything.

Gavin (from Everest earlier this year) has been sending us the rugby results - thanks! Mostly the dining table has been quiet on this front as the boss is winning, and Eric, the other guide is American and couldn't care less.

Dawa and the crew are kind to the wildlife around here, leaving scraps or rice out for the birds and the Tibetan Snowcocks are now almost tame.

Drop back a bit, and you can see how the Tibetan Snowcock blend in with the rocks around,
the browns, the black and snow white, and even the orange of the eyes like the lichen - Jamie

Curious, they hang around our camp, but normally you normally only spot them by their cackling - Jamie
Ursula sneaked up on one carefully and slowly, took its photo, and turned around to find a handful right on her heels.

Shishapangma is in that wind cloud, the mountain has barely been seen for days;
note the snow still on the rocks around ABC too, unusual for this time of year - Jamie

30 Sept - Mark coming down

The weather improved but if a team of sherpas couldn't make Camp 2 then Mark wasn't going to try, so he is returning to ABC.

30 Sept - Decisions

After breakfast we had a healthy discussion about our possibilities. This season has been rather abnormal, the average precipitation for the month was reached before the month was even half over, I am guessing that we have have easily double, perhaps triple the normal amount of snow. Officially the monsoon usually leaves the region around the middle of September, even if some occasional moisture remains. This year a tropical storm (not quite a full cyclone) rolled over in late Sept, and while it didn't hit us directly, it really brought real dumps of snow all the same, loading the mountain, so climbing conditions are still terrible.

The future could be better but our weather forecasts from Michael Fagin are not particularly positive for the next week or so. While the weather should improve and the wind should drop a bit for a couple of days, and there should be less snow, there is still no summit window; the snow is too deep to get high. Then the winds will return and seem to stay, strong winds but luckily not the jet stream. The shame of it is the winds still haven't loosened the snow high on the mountain, see the photo below.

What should we do? We could trek around the region, there really are some beautiful spots (see the lakes that Clive, Walter, Hans and myself explored last year), or we could try to climb a smaller mountain close by. However, regardless of the chances of success most people want to focus on Shishapangma. So there really is only one way to work out how realistic that is, and that is to rub your nose in it, or push a trail up it.

Our plan is to do an acclimatization run up to Camp 1 and then see if conditions will improve, see if that elusive summit window will appear. Most of the team have headed up to Depot Camp to sleep the night there and tomorrow, with assistance from the sherpas, will plug a trail (perhaps find an existing one) up to Camp 1 and spend one, or perhaps two, nights up there. We can assess conditions from there.

The team sleeping at Depot Camp tonight is Eric, Jan, Anne, Tristan, Joe C, Joe F, Martin and Ursula. Tomorrow they will move to Camp 1, and Clive, Francis, Janet and Gordon will move up direct from ABC to Camp 1. Alan and perhaps myself will remain at ABC.

Other mountains

How are others faring on our semi-neighbour Cho Oyu, a mountain surprisingly similar to Shishapangma? So far as we know only the Singapore Women's team made it up just before the storm hit (well done Jane!), and got spanked on the way down. All the other teams are still waiting (or have bailed) and I am guessing it will take some daring trail breaking to open up the route. Perhaps it will take a little more time, and a hard push - just like "our" mountain.

We also have friends on the south side of Shishapangma, Tarke Sherpa who worked for us last year on Everest, who I also travelled to Pakistan with, and worked for the Koreans this year on Everest, who were the camp beside us (and the sherpa team was chosen by myself and Dawa). I don't like their chances unless all this snow has avalanched as it fell, and regardless the wind will still be horrible.

Ultimately I feel it will be a waiting game, or a game of dare. However very few teams have enough time just to wait and wait.