2015 Nepal earthquake animation

Here is an animation from Google Earth with the USGS plugin showing three frames, once loaded the animation rolls over every three seconds.

On the 25 April 2015 quake M7.8 with the 24 hours aftershocks frame you can see a widespread pattern of aftershocks, but mainly east of the main quake, which from the USGS site in reality was a block movement of ~120x80 km under the earth.

In the 24 hours after the slightly less powerful 12 May 2015 quake M7.3 the pattern of aftershocks is less spread and with much less of a trend visible. USGS says that was a block movement of ~55x30 kms.

My GUESS at interpreting this is less chance of a further M7+ to the east after the M7.3, especially as some stress in that areas should have been released with the 18 Sept 2011 Kanchenjunga M6.9 already.

Here is a history of major earthquakes in Nepal from NSET.

22 May 2015 update

The pattern of aftershocks still seems to suggest that the majority of the movement is over as the aftershocks are still only in the areas of the major quakes, ie some settling going on. Yes, the USGS says statistically there is still some real risk but their calculations don't take any other factors into account, such as the pattern of aftershocks.

Kathmandu still shakes a few times day though, even currently. How long this goes on is anybody's guess.

2 June 2015 update

Although there are still aftershocks being felt in the region their frequency is fading, and so there is a chance in a week or two the aftershocks have almost - almost - finished. I have no idea when the aftershocks will truly finish, it could be soon, it could be months later.

Earthquake videos

The Trembling Earth has a good page on the quakes with links to most of the 25 April videos, and a few thoughts about them too.

Nepal earthquake history

Use the navigation to set this map made by the Nepali Times to see. My feeling is some of the larger quakes in West Nepal have been missed out though, as seen on this large USGS pdf.

A gap

What about the area between the 2015 M7.3 and the 2011 M6.9? This is a significant gap, and it was this area that moved during the huge 1934 M8.1 Nepal-Bihar earthquake. There is likely to be real stress, but it could take years before moving? See the Singapore Earth Observatory page for some more useful charts.

West Nepal

Everyone should be EXTREMELY worried.

See http://thehimalayantimes.com/science-technology/nepal-earthquake-what-is-cooking-up-underground/