Nepal security assessment

The world is a mess, Nepal is also. However, in summary: so far it has always safe to trek and travel in Nepal, there may be strikes, delays and inconveniences—there may not—BUT you have never been a target. You are safe from orchestrated political violence, even Americans, so come have an adventure.

The bleak future

The country is in a slow motion death spiral. The economy is kept alive by remittances from overseas (approx 10% of the population is working overseas), and with the financial crunch these are dropping. House and land prices are clearly a bubble soon to burst as new bank directors write themselves checks for crazy loans; inflation is running at around 13-20%; small-medium businesses outside of Kathmandu are closing due to extortion; talk of a currency devaluation inevitably eventually leads to one (the Nepali rupee is pegged at 1.6 to the Indian rupee), and the list of serious flaws goes on. Administratively everything is blocked politically, even appointing a new head of the Nepal Reserve Bank took 4 months of political wrangling, it is not about the best, most qualified person for the job, just who will be the most pliant. Politically, the situation is even worse with the Maoists using every trick, including murder and mayhem to bring down the system as they are unwilling to disband their army before finishing the new constitution, etc.

Lets assume that the politicians sort something acceptable out - they cannot, but for the sake of argument... Then Nepal has the possibility of getting back on track BUT it is still "the fox guarding the hen coop" with the politicians writing the rules to govern themselves, and they cannot even under pain of death see beyond their own pocket. Nobody will introduce strong law and order, where laws begin to get obeyed; they are actually utterly incapable of truly solving the current problems. The best we can hope for is for the overall situation not to get worse. And that is the best we can hope for; likely it will get worse.

Political situation

Nepal in still on a political knife edge and the situation is unpredictable. The problem is this, the Maoists are still following the doctrine of taking over the state completely (i.e. one party dictator-style), rather than just using their power as part of the elected government. Of course this is stupid and is as selfish as any other leader since 1990 (that includes ALL previous and the current prime minister, the king, and all major political party leaders; damning yes, over-the-top, no!).

When the Maoists were elected to government they had the golden opportunity to simply rapidly and comprehensively improve governance, security and business climate, indeed essentially that was their election mandate. It could have been so easy, and they would have become extremely popular, completely electable again, and would have put the country rapidly on the right path. Why they didn't follow this logical path is perhaps only explained in Maoist and Marxist jargon, and possibly by the fact the country is still run by Bahuns (yes, the top three Maoists are Brahmins!) , who think they know better than what works in the rest of the developed world.

So instead of getting on with finishing the new constitution, they are still supporting political murders, extortion, trampling the media and simply pay lip service to everyone. Talk everything, put up distractions everywhere but do nothing, useful and have blocked the writing of the new constitution completely. The ex-Prime Minister Dahal just spews blatant lies through his teeth while looking everyone straight in the eye, telling them exactly what they want to hear. He is a master of this, and surely must really know what he says make sense, is all right, all good, but it is all bare-faced lies. Don't trust a single word he says!

Lets see what happens...

Trekking safety

Come trekking, there are no unusual conditions (other than the above) to be aware of.

Kathmandu

Despite huge hydropower potential, Nepal can't produce enough electricity for itself. So in Kathmandu during spring there is load shedding (ie no electricity) for more than half the day, in autumn and winter for a quarter of the day and even in the monsoon when raining, there are still scheduled power cuts of several hours every day.

It is also a city on the edge in other ways. The air pollution is disgustingly bad and dangerously unhealthy, the rush hour traffic is to the point of virtual gridlock and the city can't even dispose of its rubbish satisfactorily. Despite these rather big issues, the historic old parts and the tourist ghetto of Thamel still have a chaotic charm.

The general situation

Nepal is in a difficult period of transition. The old way of doing things didn't seem to be working well enough and so a new way is being thought out in the form of a new constitution, but not without serious disruption and trouble.

The 14 April 2008 Constituent Assembly election went well and gave a balanced result, giving the Maoists enough power that they won't be tempted to go back to the jungle but not a majority, and now this government is trying both to run government and rewrite the constitution. In June 2008 the country was declared a republic, ie the king stripped of power, and in August 2008 a president to replace the king was elected, another step in the long process of possibly starting to transform the country. The constitution should be debated and agreed to by April 2010, but that won't happen, I think.

Nepal desperately needs good governance. The real problems are the long list of historical injustices and the inherent unfairness of the system and the political class - can the Maoists tackle these? Radical reform is needed but so far, by April 2009, there was no sign of any real attempt to improve anything.

In some ways it is simple, the Nepal government needs honest and skilled leaders with vision whose only interest is for the good of the country. However corruption is so bad that it is stopping any changes for the better. Imagine that if you and your family are literally staving and without money, and you get a government job, what are you going to do first? Help your friends and family - or help the country? In Nepal's desperate state friends and family usually come first, it is only when there is a large middle class that people can start to think of the general good.

The second huge issue that the politicians don't see is where the lines should be drawn, and naturally this is almost impossible for them to solve this themselves. Now rural Nepal is almost lawless because of a culture of impunity and is in a cycle where seemingly the only way to get heard is through violent means. Every decision is so selfishly political, so politically calculated for the short term, that general good, long term good doesn't come into it. Nobody is willing to stand back and guide the country back onto the right path.

Naturally there are are frustrations everywhere. There are protests by students about university lecturer positions, families of the disappeared (ie brutally tortured then murdered) people who still have no information despite both sides agreeing to release information within 60 days, several times years ago, the list is endless. Expect occasional disturbances and strikes, possibly yet another pseudo-coup but normally these don't have too much effect on trekking plans.

Trekking in India is safe.